EURAM 2011: Does scenario thinking make a difference?

Research Paper (postgraduate) from the year 2011 in the subject Business economics - Business Management, Corporate Governance, grade: 'keine', University of Mannheim, language: English, abstract: Valuing or underestimating the opportunities derived from environmental changes might determine which organisation will survive and which organisation will see its viability at risk. Organisational inertia and a lack of absorptive capacity can inhibit organisational flexibility and innovativeness. In this study, we suggest organisations to implement a pro-active search for new opportunities, which potentially entails innovation. By adopting a micro-level perspective, we emphasise the importance of individuals within an organisation as contributor to the organisation's success. An integrative model linking organisational inertia, scenario planning, and absorptive capacity is proposed. We present scenario thinking as a tool which may impact individuals' openness to change, hence leads to a positive attitude towards new information, i.e. absorptive capacity. Several propositions are derived from this multitheoretical model. We argue organisations may be presented with a promising approach to increase the motivation and capability of individuals to engage in innovative actions, and suggest further research to empirically test this model.

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