The Afghan Taliban: Evolution of an Adaptive Insurgency - Afghan Identity, Spread of Transnational Terrorism, Tactical Innovation, Political Ingenuity; Counterinsurgency Needs Agility, Responsiveness

This report has been professionally converted for accurate flowing-text e-book format reproduction. Throughout their twenty-five-year insurgency, the Afghan Taliban have evolved from a small group of madrasa students, mujahedeen fighters, and tribal Afghans into one of the most innovative and adaptive insurgencies in modern history. As a result, the U.S.-declared War on Terror in Afghanistan has persisted for eighteen years as the Afghan Taliban continue to threaten regional security and stability. In 2019, renewed Taliban peace talks with the U.S. may be an indicator for optimism, but the historical patterns in Taliban strategy and ideology demand caution. The U.S. government has repeatedly underestimated the sophistication, innovation, and resiliency of the Taliban. This thesis examines how the Afghan Taliban's strategies and ideologies have evolved since 1994 when the group became an explicit political and military entity. Broken into distinct time periods, this thesis chronologically investigates the history of the insurgency using the following lenses: Afghan identity, the spread of transnational terrorism, tactical innovation, and political ingenuity. Outdated and over-generalized counterinsurgency doctrine led to millions of American deaths in Vietnam, Afghanistan, and Iraq. Success of future doctrine requires applied awareness of cultural complexities and adversarial behaviors. Agility, speed, and responsiveness must become major tenets of counterinsurgency planning moving forward.

This compilation includes a reproduction of the 2019 Worldwide Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community.

The body of this thesis analyzes the Taliban organization through five distinct time periods, beginning in 1994 until present-day, as a means of chronologically moving through the modern history of the insurgency. Chapter II discusses the Taliban's rise to political power from 1994 to 1997. The chapter explores the complex factors which make up Afghan identity including religion, ethnicity, and tribalism. Furthermore, the chapter illustrates how the Taliban developed a comprehensive national identity to unite their followers during one of the most divided periods in Afghan history. Chapter III examines the Taliban organization from 1997 to 2001 as they faced new pressures from international actors and cultivated relationships with beneficial allies. The rise of transnational terrorism and the beginning of the U.S. invasion of Afghanistan during this period illustrates the Taliban's willingness to adapt their ideological and political narratives in periods of conflict. Chapter IV studies the major political, organizational, social, and tactical adaptations made by the Taliban between 2002 and 2009. As the Taliban insurgency regrouped and returned to Afghanistan, they operated with revolutionized tactics which served several devastating blows to the U.S. counterinsurgency. Competing for legitimacy against the U.S.-supported government in Kabul, the Taliban have adapted their political infrastructure to undermine efforts of the central government. Chapter V analyzes these political strategies executed by the Taliban regime from 2010 until the present day. The sixth and final chapter provides an overview of the current character of the Taliban regime in Afghanistan in 2019. This chapter culminates in a selection of policy recommendations informed by the research provided throughout this thesis.

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