Azimuth Check: Envisioning U.S. Army Special Forces in the Next Peer War - Results of 2035 Wargame Table Top Exercise (TTX), Synthesis of National Future Studies 2030 - 2050, Exposing Capability Gaps

This report has been professionally converted for accurate flowing-text e-book format reproduction. U.S. Army Special Forces are adept at accomplishing their core tasks, often within the cooperation and competition realms of the conflict continuum, and against less-than-peer adversaries. Their methods, skills, and capabilities may be insufficient to complete the same tasks against a peer competitor during armed conflict; some tasks may need to be accomplished differently, and new ones may need to be developed. As the Department of Defense re-directs its focus on great power competition in the midst of an increasingly complex operating environment, this study explores how Special Forces could contribute to defeating a great power adversary in large-scale combat operations between 2030-2050. After describing a future operating environment based on a synthesis of national-level future studies and providing an analysis of historical Special Forces missions that highlight a peer competitor focus, this study presents observations from a ready-to-use Table Top Exercise scoped toward Special Forces operating against a peer competitor in armed conflict. The study offers an analysis of the TTX observations by presenting a DOTmLPF and War Fighting Functions crosswalk meant to highlight potential capability gaps within U.S. Army Special Forces. It then concludes by presenting recommendations centered on transforming leadership and education practices as well as exploring new concepts and doctrine within U.S. Army Special Forces to better prepare the regiment for war against a peer.

This compilation includes a reproduction of the 2019 Worldwide Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community.

I. Introduction * A. Background to the Problem * 1. Great Power Wars * 2. The Future Operating Environment * 3. Acknowledging and Adapting * B. Purpose and Methodology * C. Findings and Recommendations * D. Conclusion * II. Literature Review * A. Purpose * B. U.S. Army Special Forces: A Historical Perspective * 1. Special Forces' Original Purpose * 2. Early Special Forces' Plans and Operations * C. Envisioning the Future Operating Environment * 1. Purpose * 2. Summary * 3. Technology * 4. International System * 5. State Governance * 6. Military Implications * D. Addressing The Future * E. Conclusion * III. Methodology * A. Purpose * B. Wargaming and Scenarios * 1. Wargaming: A Brief History * 2. Scenarios and Their Utility * C. Designing the "U.S. Army Special Forces 2035 Table Top Exercise" * 1. Scoping the Problem * 2. Developing the Scenarios and the Future Operating Environment * 3. Methods and Tools * 4. Player Selection * 5. Playtests * 6. Execution of the TTX * 7. Player Observations * IV. Analysis, Recommendations, and Conclusion * A. Purpose * B. Analyzing the TTX Observations and the Implications for Special Forces * C. Recommendations * 1. Expand Concepts, Doctrine and Training to account for Principal Tasks during Large-Scale Combat Operations * 2. Equip Leaders to Cope and Thrive * D. Conclusion * Appendix. U.S. Army Special Forces 2035 Table Top Exercise

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