A Bear at My Door: How to Stop Future Russian Aggression - Protecting the Sovereignty of Former USSR Satellites Through Conscription Force, Arming Home Guards, Training for Prolonged Guerilla Warfare

This report has been professionally converted for accurate flowing-text e-book format reproduction. Today's military and political books, magazines, and internet discussions have seen a resurgence of the varying applications of small unit warfare. Known by names such as Small Wars, Hybrid, Asymmetric, 4th Generation, or Grey warfare; Guerilla warfare has seen a resurgence in the military vernacular of today. However, its theory and practice remains to operate Spartan like and independent of the larger conventional forces and using only what is available, striking when the enemy is most vulnerable and during heightened periods of friction or protracted periods of complacency. In essence, as Sun Tzu published in the Art of War during the 6th century B.C. a practicing guerilla warfare practitioner strives to operate "just as flowing water avoids the heights and hastens to the lowlands, so an army avoids strength and strikes weakness". This paper is to provide historical application to the current plight faced by former satellite or buffer states of the United Soviet Socialist Republic. These states face a renewed Russia which is supported by an active, overwhelming, and powerful military. The only way for these states to protect their own sovereignty is to reinforce their existing militaries by instituting a conscription force with compulsory service, by arming the populace as a home guard or defense league, and by training to execute guerilla style warfare over a protracted period.

This compilation includes a reproduction of the 2019 Worldwide Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community.

This paper will analyze the framework faced by current nation states that possess a historical background with the former United Soviet Socialist Republic and recommend varying actions based on current United States military doctrine and warfighting functions. Further it will discuss integration with already standing military forces, application of Special Forces and partnering with the North Atlantic Treaty Organization countries. Today's political environment has seen the resurgence of Russian aggression and a desire to return to the days of the United Soviet Socialist Republic. Russian president Vladimir Putin has a flair for theatrics which has permeated the Russian hierarchy. Shirtless horse rides with media coverage, military incursion into Crimea days after the closing ceremony of the Olympics, or having his Russian Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov publish intent to invade Crimea in the Military Industrial Courier weeks before invading are just a sample of the current Russian aggressive posture. These vain and sometimes illegal actions have caused suspicions, fear and a watchful eye across the globe and more so in the former Warsaw Pact nations. Russia continues to increase its sphere of influence and a desire to return to the world stage as a regional Hegemon. Russia and President Putin have further branched into the Middle East supporting varying partners. Most of this support is to the Shiite lead majority governments of Syria (previously engaged in a civil war) and Iran (helping negotiate the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action) but it is also assisting Iraq in its fight against the Islamic State. Current tensions within the region and disillusionment with the Saudi Arabian Sunni controlled Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries' (OPEC) saturation of the oil market has had a major impact on the Russian economy further straining tensions within the former Cold War powerbroker.

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