Building the Decision-Making Environment in the Information Age: An Analysis of Defense Program Manager Decision-Making in Complex and Chaotic Program Environments - Sensemaking and Nousmaking

This report has been professionally converted for accurate flowing-text e-book format reproduction. In order to better understand how a program manager creates situational awareness and understanding in chaotic program environments, this project focuses on how a program manager gains insight in the decision-making process. The non-linearity of events in which human decision-making is predicated is chaotic and may have certain similarities and patterns that can be studied with regard to their association with the individual(s) involved in the decision-making process. If we better understood the human-in-the-loop influence on decision-making in the modern, information-supersaturated environment, perhaps future organizational and leadership theories and methods could be better tailored to the environment, ultimately leading to more predictable outcomes. This case study will begin to provide a greater level of insight into these issues and will be the basis of future research.

This compilation includes a reproduction of the 2019 Worldwide Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community.

I. Introduction * A. Background * B. Purpose * C. Problem * D. Method * E. Scope * F. Summary * II. Literature Review * A. The Decision-Making Process * B. Decision-Making in Other Countries * C. Biases in Decision-Making * D. Thinking, Fast And Slow * E. Sensemaking * F. Nousmaking * G. Decision-Making in the Information Age * H. Congress, Information Technology, and the Use of Force * I. Information Age And Strategic Decision-Making * III. Analysis of Data Received * A. Subject A * 1. Background and Vignettes * 2. Decision-Making Model * 3. Model Analysis * 4. Summary * B. Subject B * 1. Background and Vignettes * 2. Decision-Making Model * 3. Model Analysis * 4. Summary * C. Subject Comparison * IV. Conclusion and Recommendations * A. Conclusion * B. Recommendations For Further Study * C. Final Thoughts

In modern Department of Defense (DoD) acquisition programs, countless decisions need to be made, varying from day-to-day operations, acquisition strategies, source selections, or even project terminations. The single individual who makes a majority of these decisions (or prepares the analysis for a more senior decision-maker) is the program manager. The sum of these decisions could determine whether a program succeeds or fails. Recent program failures, often from cost overruns and schedule slips, have resulted in delayed delivery of capabilities to the warfighter and wasted taxpayer funds. Past fixes to this issue have come in the form of policy changes in an attempt to control and coerce the system into an efficient state, but with so many decisions being made, it is impossible to control them all through policy.

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