Characteristics of predicted errors

Like many other biological variables, life expectancy under Mediocristan, that is less random. It is not in ascending order, the older we are, the shorter life is. In a developed country, according to the insurance index, a newborn baby girl is expected to die at age 79. When she arrived at her 79th birthday, assuming she was in good health, she would live another 10 years. At 90, she will probably have another 4.7 years to live. At the age of 100, she will live for another 2.5 years. At 119 years old, if she could live that long, she would probably have nine more months to live. As she passed the predicted death date, her number of alive years would decrease. This illustrates the key attribute of random variables related to the bell curve. Conditional expectation of life will decrease as the person gets older.

With human projects and businesses, we have another story. These are things that are usually hierarchical, as I said in Chapter 3. With ladder variables - those from Extremistan, you will witness the complete opposite effect. For example, a project is expected to be completed in 79 days, this expectation is similar to the case of newborn girls, only differing in the words "year" and "date". On the 79th day, if not completed, the project will need 25 more days. But on the 90th day, if it's not done, the project will last for 58 days. On the 100th day, there will be 89 days left. On the 119th day, there were 49 days left. On the 600th day, if it is still not completed, then the project will need another 1,590 days. You see, the longer you wait, the longer the waiting time will last .

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