Forecasting Polling Results

The way politicians communicate with the electorate and run electoral campaigns was reshaped by the emergence and popularization of contemporary social media (SM), such as Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram social networks (SNs). Due to the inherent capabilities of SM, such as the large amount of available data accessed in real time, a new research subject has emerged, focusing on using the SM data to predict election outcomes. Despite many studies conducted in the last decade, results are very controversial and many times challenged. In this context, this article aims to investigate and summarize how research on predicting elections based on the SM data has evolved since its beginning, to outline the state of both the art and the practice, and to identify research opportunities within this field.

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