NATO or Neutrality? Decisions by Denmark, Finland, Norway, and Sweden: Impact of Russian Aggression by Putin on Finnish and Swedish Alignment, Nordic Anti-access/Area Denial Strategy Effect

This late 2017 report has been professionally converted for accurate flowing-text e-book format reproduction.

Although Denmark, Finland, Norway, and Sweden are ethnically and culturally similar, and all relied on neutrality to protect their sovereignty prior to the Second World War, Denmark and Norway sought protection from the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) after the war while Finland and Sweden still remain outside the Alliance. This thesis explores the reasons for these diverging paths before discussing what might cause Finland and Sweden to join NATO in the future. The thesis finds that recent Russian aggression has pushed Finland and Sweden closer than ever to seeking membership, and concludes that they will probably join the Alliance eventually, but only after their general elections in 2019 and 2018, respectively, at the earliest. Additionally, the thesis notes that Finland is a stronger proponent for non-alignment, while Sweden is increasingly pushing the duo toward NATO membership. Furthermore, the research indicates that the NATO Allies would welcome these two countries into the Alliance if they sought membership. U.S. foreign policy might most effectively encourage Finnish and Swedish membership by avoiding bilateral security guarantees with them, supporting fact-based public debates in the countries, and engaging with their governments.

I. INTRODUCTION * A. SIGNIFICANCE OF THE RESEARCH QUESTION * B. LITERATURE REVIEW * C. POTENTIAL EXPLANATIONS AND HYPOTHESES * D. RESEARCH DESIGN * E. THESIS OVERVIEW AND DRAFT CHAPTER OUTLINE * II. DENMARK AND NORWAY: CHOOSING NATO * A. DENMARK * B. NORWAY * C. THE SCANDINAVIAN DEFENSE UNION * D. CONCLUSION * III. FINLAND AND SWEDEN: CHOOSING NEUTRALITY * A. FINLAND * B. SWEDEN * C. CONCLUSION * IV. FINLAND AND SWEDEN IN A CHANGING SECURITY ENVIRONMENT * A. FINLAND * B. SWEDEN * C. COMBINED AND COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS * D. CONCLUSION * V. PROSPECTS OF NATO ACCEPTANCE * VI. CONCLUSION

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