Nuclear Hell on Wheels: Examining the Need for a Mobile ICBM in 2015 - Attributes of Effective Nuclear Force Structure, Rationale Behind the Current Nuclear Triad, Attack Scenarios, Nuclear Exchange

Professionally converted for accurate flowing-text e-book format reproduction, this unique study examines the possible role of mobile ICBMs as America prepares to update its entire nuclear triad. The 2010 Nuclear Posture Review calls upon the Department of Defense to examine alternate basing modes for the nation's land-based leg of the triad. The Nuclear Posture Review presumes that the survivability of mobile ICBMs may eliminate the paradox faced by the President when presented with indications of nuclear attack. Namely, the President must choose to "use or lose" silo-based ICBMs, resulting in an increased risk of miscalculation in a time-constrained environment. This paper examines the validity of this rationale in two attack scenarios, and concludes that the Nuclear Posture Review does not account for the vulnerability of the President and the nuclear command and control system in the face of a surprise attack. The final section of the paper examines the conditions that must be present in order to favor the fielding of a US mobile ICBM force. The first condition is a change in vulnerability of the SSBN force, causing its survivability to be questioned. The second condition is the emergence of a credible conventional threat to the US silo-based ICBM force. The third condition is a shift in US nuclear strategy from counterforce to countervalue, to include the adoption of a minimum credible deterrence posture. The fourth condition is increased risk of miscalculation in a launch on warning scenario, specifically a false warning event that degrades confidence in the US early warning system. Finally, a collapse of restraints imposed by current arms control agreements could spur an arms race, changing the level of acceptable vulnerability for the land-based leg of the triad.

As part of the acquisition process for a new Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM), the Air Force has asked for proposals that include alternate basing modes such as mobile ICBMs. The pundits interested in such things as nuclear force structure have ridiculed the notion of a mobile ICBM, based largely on its projected cost, the unwillingness of the American people to tolerate the presence of mobile nuclear weapon systems on their roads, and the mobile ICBM's lack of utility against current threats. While these arguments may have merit, they fail to address the fundamental issue underlying the reemergence of the mobile ICBM in the context of the nation's future nuclear force structure. The 2010 Nuclear Posture Review was explicit about the need to consider alternatives to silo basing for ICBMs, directing the Department of Defense to "explore new modes of ICBM basing that could enhance survivability and further reduce any incentives for prompt launch. Such an assessment will be part of the Department of Defense's study of possible replacements for the current ICBM force."

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