Option Traders' Decision-Tree With Probabilities

For investing this is an exciting fresh look into quality control of trade selections for stock and options trading. It includes 10 key steps along the trail to higher probability stock and option candidates. As a bonus, it explains the Hill and Dale Trading Method to ensure with-the-trend compliance along with relevant chart examples..

There are numerous resources available to provide leads to good candidates; however, some systems fail to anticipate trend change points. Thus, even though the trend change is due, many technical systems continue to insist on the "old" (prior) direction potentially leading us astray due to their logic or time frame assumptions. Here are some links for volatility and trend change leads, followed by the Hill and Dale Method to "test the trend" maturity, with my thanks to Ralph Elliott for his Elliott Wave Theory which was used as a logical input.

As you can see, volatility is a major key in successful candidate selection, possibly increasing our estimated success from about 50% to 80%.

There are numerous resources available to provide leads to good candidates; however, some systems fail to anticipate trend change points. Thus, even though the trend change is due, many technical systems continue to insist on the "old" (prior) direction potentially leading us astray due to their logic or time frame assumptions. Here are some links for volatility and trend change leads, followed by the Hill and Dale Method to "test the trend" maturity, with my thanks to Ralph Elliott for his Elliott Wave Theory which was used as a logical input.

As you can see, volatility is a major key in successful candidate selection, possibly increasing our estimated success from about 50% to 80%.

Calls and Buyers: If you do not have 5 definitive Dales and you are thinking of buying for an uptrend, stop and reconsider. (Or use a high-risk stop-entry at the Bollinger/Channel/PSAR upper limit.)

Puts and Sellers: If you do not have 5 definitive Hills and you are thinking of selling for a downtrend, stop and reconsider. (Or use a high-risk stop-entry at the Bollinger/Channel/PSAR lower limit.)

Dettagli