Reassuring Russia on BMD: Reaction to Putin's Armament Program 2020, Proposals for Cooperative Actions the U.S. Should Take to Ease Russia's Threat Perception Including Sharing of Early Warning Data

This report has been professionally converted for accurate flowing-text e-book format reproduction. The United States' Ballistic Missile Defense comprehensive strategy states that the United States homeland missile defense capabilities are not focused on Russia, are not intended to affect the strategic balance with them, and are not of sufficient capacity to deal with Russian large scale attacks. However, Russia sees the United States' expansion of international efforts and cooperation on missile defense as a contentious issue. Of note, Russia has a strong disagreement with the United States about the extent of Iran's nuclear program, interprets the U.S. strategy as unilateral, is concerned over the degradation of their second strike capability, and is concerned with the U.S. and NATO eastward encroachment into their sphere of influence. Reflecting Russia's concerns over the U.S. ballistic missile defense strategy, Russia's President announced his State Armament Program 2020 which increases spending on next generation missiles and countermeasures as well as strategic missile troops and aerospace defense forces. Ultimately, this counter response risks triggering regional conflict, crisis instability, and a new arms race. To hand off these outcomes, this paper proposes cooperative actions the U.S. should take to ease Russia's threat perception to include declarations of openness, Russian participation in NATO missile defense summits, development of a joint threat assessment, sharing of early warning data, instituting a cooperative command and control for ballistic missile intercepts, and developing a joint NATO-Russia training program.

This compilation includes a reproduction of the 2019 Worldwide Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community.

The United States' Ballistic Missile Defense (BMD) comprehensive strategy is outlined in the nation's Ballistic Missile Defense Review (BMDR) of 2010 which states that the United States' homeland missile defense capabilities are not focused on Russia, are not intended to affect the strategic balance with them, and are not of sufficient capacity to deal with Russian large scale attacks. The review further states that the intent of the missile defense system is to defend the homeland against limited ballistic missile attack from "states acquiring nuclear weapons and other weapons of mass destruction in contravention of international norms and in defiance of the international community". However, Russia sees the United States' expansion of international efforts and cooperation on missile defense differently. A Russian news review sums up the Russian concerns, "Russian foreign minister Lavrov said Russia's agreement to discuss cooperation on missile defense in the NATO-Russia Council does not mean that Moscow agrees to the NATO projects which are being developed without Russia's participation. The minister said the fulfillment of the third and fourth phases of the U.S. 'adaptive approach' will enter a strategic level threatening the efficiency of Russia's nuclear containment forces."

This research paper argues that the effective employment of BMD system provides a strategic value to the United States and NATO, but at the same time is a perceived threat to Russia. Since there is value to pursuing BMD, this paper provides recommendations to address Russian concerns. The remainder of this paper unfolds in four parts. The next section discusses the adversaries that the U.S. BMD system is developed to defeat. Then the capabilities and employment of the U.S. BMD system are explained. Once this foundation is laid, the discussion moves to an analysis of how Russia views the U.S. BMD system and what their response has been. Finally, the paper concludes with recommendations to alleviate Russian concerns on the employment of the U.S. BMD system.

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