The Science of Mistakes

That mistakes are made is clear. What is meant by that is not. Measuring whatever might be meant and scientifically studying it is therefore even more challenging.

These lectures introduce an interdisciplinary science of mistakes to cut the Gordian knot. The key building blocks are model constructs drawn from the economic tradition, methods of measurement drawn from the psychometric tradition, and analytic methods drawn from economic theory.

Contents:

• Overview

• The Operational Model:

  • Operationalizing the Blackwell Model
  • Costly Information Representations and Attention Switches
  • All Rationalizing Cost Functions
  • Revealed Bayesian Learning: A Full Characterization
  • Full Recovery of Costs and Welfare
  • Comparison of Revealed Experiments
  • Posterior-Separable Cost Functions and Behavior

• The Shannon Model of Rational Inattention:

  • Solving the Shannon Model
  • Optimal Consideration Sets and the Invariant Likelihood Ratio Hyperplanes
  • Equilibrium, Exchangeability, and Symmetry

• Applications:

  • Modeling Machine Learning
  • Teaching, Testing, and Learning
  • Management Skills and Productive Efficiency
  • Decision-Making Skills, Job Transitions, and Income
  • Communication Policies

Readership: For economists, psychologists, and data scientists interested in a common analytic framework for understanding mistakes. The book is suitable for advanced undergraduates, graduate students, and researchers in economics, psychology and data science.
Key Features:

• Presents a coherent scientific approach to understanding mistakes that is interdisciplinary in nature

Dettagli