Transitions from Violence to Politics: Conditions for the Politicization of Violent Non-State Actors - Hizbollah, Irish Republican Army (IRA), Muslim Brotherhood, Partiya Karkeren Kurdistane

This excellent report has been professionally converted for accurate flowing-text e-book format reproduction. It is imperative for a nation to understand the most effective way to combat threats to its national security, and at times the best reaction to a violent atrocity could be diplomatic. This study examines the politicization process of violent non-state actors and the five statistical factors that contribute to the likelihood of a successful transition from violence to politics. These five salient factors include the occurrence of negotiations, the ideology of the organization, the motivations of the organization, the types of targets it selects to attack, and the longevity of the group. These factors are identified through a statistical analysis, and tested in successive chapters examining case studies of violent actors that have successfully politicized, are currently transitioning, or have failed. The objective of this study is to determine if the factors examined can be used to predict the likelihood of other violent non-state actors successfully transitioning to politics. Additionally, the case is made that "politicization" significantly reduces violence. The conclusion suggests how legitimate state actors that are combating violent non-state actors can gauge ripeness for politicization and suggests how to focus a state's efforts in order to support either a political transition or facilitate a group's collapse.

Beginning in Chapter II, this analysis presents historic statistical patterns in the conditions of violent non-state actors and their manner of ending. It also narrows the field of factors to those that are statistically significant in predicting politicization. Following the statistical analysis there are four chapters that examine case studies of varying politicization outcomes. Chapter III examines Hizbollah as a case study of a violent non-state actor in transition. The next chapter considers the Irish Republican Army, a case of politicization transition success. Chapter V examines Partiya Karkeren Kurdistane, or Kurdistan Workers' Party, a violent non-state actor in transition whose ultimate politicization success is in question. The last case study chapter examines a politicization failure, the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt. The analysis ends with findings, recommendations, and conclusions.

CHAPTER I - INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND * CHAPTER II - STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF CONDITIONS * A. DATASETS * B. DATASET FACTORS * C. ASSUMPTIONS * D. METHODS * E. RESULTS. * F. IMPLICATIONS * CHAPTER III - HIZBOLLAH: CURRENTLY TRANSITIONING * A. BACKGROUND * B. CONDITIONS * C. VIOLENCE LEVELS * D. PROLIFERATION * E. CONCLUSION * CHAPTER IV - IRISH REPUBLICAN ARMY: TRANSITION SUCCESS * A. BACKGROUND * B. CONDITIONS * C. VIOLENCE LEVELS * D. CONCLUSION * CHAPTER V - PARTIYA KARKEREN KURDISTANE: TRANSITION IN QUESTION * A. BACKGROUND * B. CONDITIONS * C. VIOLENCE LEVELS * D. PROLIFERATION * E. CONCLUSION * CHAPTER VI - MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD (EGYPT): TRANSITION FAILURE * A. BACKGROUND * B. CONDITIONS * C. VIOLENCE LEVELS * D. CONCLUSION * CHAPTER VII - FINDINGS, RECOMMENDATIONS, AND CONCLUSIONS * A. CONDITIONS * B. VIOLENCE LEVELS * C. PREDICTIVITY * D. FURTHER RESEARCH * E. UNITED STATES' ROLE

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