Understanding the Threat Ecosystem: A Concept for Intelligence Support to Special Warfare - Analysis of Anbar Awakening During Iraq War As an Example of a Modern Special Warfare Environment

This report has been professionally converted for accurate flowing-text e-book format reproduction. The current U.S. Army operating concept, as described in TRADOC Pamphlet 525-3-1, states that the evolving global operating environment contains diverse enemies, employing traditional, unconventional and hybrid strategies that threaten the security and vital interests of the United States. In this dynamic and emergent threat environment, the United States National Command Authority will turn increasingly to Special Operations Forces to conduct Special Warfare activates in order to mitigate or eliminate threats before they metastasize. Intelligence support to Special Warfare activities is critical to ensure the effective conduct of these sensitive activities, but the foundations of U.S. Army intelligence practices still retain the essence of a Cold War focus, understanding a known enemy who follows known doctrine. The focus on a reductionist approach to intelligence problems by parsing issues into sub-categories, can lead intelligence professionals away from seeing bigger picture patterns and trends. Military intelligence professionals working in a complex world with an amorphous threat environment need to understand problems from a holistic approach. Drawing from the discipline of complexity research, this monograph argues that Special Warfare operational environments, can be better understood in the form of an ecosystem. Therefore, the use of an ecosystem-based intelligence analysis of the operational environment is an effective method to frame the problem set. The Anbar Awakening during Operation Iraqi Freedom is an example of the Special Warfare environment in the 21st Century, and can be analyzed using an ecosystem model to understand the relationships and resource flows between actors. This example demonstrates how an ecosystem framing of intelligence analysis in support of Special Warfare mission sets provides a more comprehensive way to understand the operational environment.

Contents: 1. Introduction 2. Literature Review 3. The Doctrinal Military Intelligence Approach to Framing the Problem 4. Understanding the Threat Environment as an Ecosystem 5. The "Anbar Awakening" As an Example of a Modern Special Warfare Environment 6. Intelligence Support to Special Warfare Environments 7. Conclusion

To better understand this shift in warfare, the nature of paradigm shifts needs to be addressed. Thomas Kuhn discussed the idea of paradigms in his seminal work The Structure of Scientific Revolutions. Kuhn defines a scientific paradigm as "universally recognized scientific achievements that, for a time, provide model problems and solutions for a community of practitioners." This concept of a paradigm can be used to conceptualize the international security environment. The security environment is a common understanding of major powers' interaction, and the consequences of conflicts with and between those powers. Kuhn further writes that paradigms can change and these shifts in paradigms occur due to a crisis, wherein the previous understanding has too many contradictions and anomalies to be accepted by the community any longer; it is then discarded for a radically new, shared understanding of the environment. In line with this idea of a radical transition, this monograph argues that the military operating environment is undergoing a paradigm shift, wherein the former idea of stable, state actor-oriented conflict is in crisis, and a new shared understanding of conflict is on the horizon.

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